| Market | Nasdaq 100 (USATECHIDXUSD · at your broker it may appear as NAS100, USTEC or US100) |
| Timeframe | 4 hours |
| Direction | Trades longs and shorts · three long systems and one short, in parallel |
| Type | Multi-strategy portfolio · market entry, exits at multiples of ATR and by number of candles |
| Systems in the portfolio | Four, chosen by portfolio search among 19 candidates that had passed their validation separately |
| Period analyzed | 01/01/2020 - 18/08/2026 (6,6 years) |
| Simulation engine | MetaTrader 5, hedging account |
| Costs included | Spread 2 points · slippage 1 point · commission of USD 3,50 per lot per trade. Does not include swap - see the note on the overnight holding cost |
| Reference capital | All the published numbers are calculated on an initial capital of USD 100.000, with a fixed position size of 7 lots per USD 100.000 of account The lot is measured on the instrument’s standard contract: if your broker uses a different contract size, write to us and we will give you the equivalent. |
All the numbers in this block come from a single run, over six and a half years of Nasdaq history: it includes the COVID crash in March 2020 and the full bear year of 2022. They are measured with commission and slippage applied, and without swap - that last point is explained below and it matters.
| METRIC | FULL PERIOD |
|---|---|
| Total profit | $ 381.574,13 |
| Average annual profit | $ 57.552,66 |
| Average monthly profit | $ 4.795,55 |
| Trades | 2.849 (≈ 35,8 per month) |
| Winning trades | 1.369 · 48,05 % |
| Losing trades | 1.480 · 51,95 % |
| Profit Factor | 1,18 |
| Sharpe ratio | 1,20 · calculated on the monthly returns of the account |
| Average win | $ 1.818,43 |
| Average loss | $ 1.424,23 |
| Payoff ratio | 1,28 |
| Average result per trade | $ 133,93 |
| Average duration of a trade | 12,7 4-hour candles · ≈ 2,1 days |
| Market exposure | 97,01 % |
Simulated account month by month, from $ 100.000 to $ 481.574. Dotted line: the initial capital.
It is the block that weighs most when deciding a purchase, so it goes whole and uncut: the seven years of the sample, one by one, with 2022 in red included.
| YEAR | RESULT | ACCOUNT AT CLOSE |
| 2020 | +103.159 | 203.159 |
| 2021 | +74.854 | 278.013 |
| 2022 | -60.526 | 217.487 |
| 2023 | +49.139 | 266.626 |
| 2024 | +42.798 | 309.424 |
| 2025 | +70.048 | 379.472 |
| 2026 | +102.103 | 481.574 |
The portfolio trades in both directions, but the split is very uneven and I prefer to say it myself: three of the four systems are long and only one is short. The short side contributes 14,9 % of the result. It works as a cushion in the down stretches, not as an engine.
| Longs · profit | $ 324.784,53 · 85,1 % of the total |
| Longs · trades | 2.669 · three systems |
| Shorts · profit | $ 56.789,60 · 14,9 % of the total |
| Shorts · trades | 180 · a single system |
| Both sides add up | $ 381.574,13 · 2.849 trades |
| Maximum drawdown | $ 84.280 | 29,91 % measured against the account peak, which is how the simulator calculates it · 84,28 % of the initial capital |
| Longest losing streak | 23 trades | in a row, without a single winning one in between |
| Without recovering the peak | 800 days | from 28/12/2021 to 08/03/2024 · more than two years without making a new account peak |
| Worst trade | - $ 4.953,20 | stop executed, at 7 lots |
| It is right less than half the time | 48,05 % | 1.369 winning trades against 1.480 losing trades. It wins on the payoff ratio, not on being right |
| Market exposure | 97,01 % | there is almost always a position open, and often several, long and short at the same time |
| No swap | see note | the overnight financing cost is not in these numbers and can turn the result around · note 1 |
| Bearish episodes in the sample | 2 | March 2020 and all of 2022 |
The four systems in this portfolio passed three tests before being included: out-of-sample validation, walk-forward and parameter permutation. Permutation is the hardest of the three: it moves each parameter around the chosen value and requires the system to keep working, so the result does not depend on having hit one exact number.
| Validation of each system separately | Out-of-sample + walk-forward + parameter permutation · passed |
I would rather you buy knowing this. If anything here stops you, it was not for you - and that is worth more to me than a sale.
An index CFD pays or charges financing for every night the position stays open. This portfolio accumulates around 40.000 lot-days over the six and a half years, almost all of them on the long side. Translated: every dollar per lot per day of swap moves around USD 40.000 on the total result. With the profit of USD 381.574 you see above, breakeven sits at 9,54 dollars per lot per day. As long as your broker charges less than that, the portfolio makes money; if it charges more, it loses. That figure is in the symbol specification on your platform and I recommend you look at it before buying, not after. I don't publish it as a fixed number because it changes from broker to broker and I don't want to sell you a result that depends on a condition I don't control.
The sample has 2.849 trades, which is a lot, but it covers a single complete cycle: the post-COVID rebound, the 2022 bear market and the recovery that followed. Two bear episodes are not enough for any statistical significance about how the portfolio behaves in a market that goes against it. What I can say is that it ended 2022 losing USD 60.525 and did not break.
With a 48 % win rate and a payoff ratio of 1,28, long losing streaks are part of the design, not a flaw. The longest one in the backtest was 23 trades. If you are going to turn the bot off at the tenth loss in a row, this is not your product - and I would rather you knew that now.
Measured against the account peak it comes to 29,70 %, which is how the simulator reports it and is the figure you see above. Measured against the USD 100.000 it starts with, it is USD 84.280. Both are true and they measure different things. If you are going to trade this portfolio, I recommend starting at half scale - 3,5 lots per USD 100.000 instead of 7 - until you see it work with your own money.
From about 8.900 to more than 24.500 points. With stops calculated as multiples of ATR, the dollar risk per trade follows the level of the index: the same lot risks considerably more money today than in 2020. That is why the size is published in lots per USD 100.000 of account, and why the maximum drawdown you see is measured in the most expensive part of the period, not in the cheapest.
Any mostly long strategy on the Nasdaq in 2020-2026 is carried by a very strong bull market. With 85,1 % of the profit coming from the long side, this portfolio is no exception. The short side rows against that tailwind, but it contributes 14,9 % - not enough to call it market neutral, and I do not sell it as such.
| Hedging account | MANDATORY. The systems trade in parallel and there are longs and shorts open at the same time |
| Platform | MetaTrader 5 with algorithmic trading enabled |
| Instrument | Nasdaq 100 as a CFD (NAS100 / USTEC / US100). Check your broker's point value before trading: the usual is USD 1 per point per standard lot, but some brokers use USD 10 and that multiplies everything by ten |
| Simultaneous positions | Up to four. Market exposure of 97,01 % - there is almost always something open |
| Overnight financing cost | Look at it before buying. It is an index CFD: it pays swap for every night the position stays open. With an average duration of 2,1 days it is the heaviest cost of all - see note 1 |
| Availability | A machine on all week, or a VPS (USD 12,80-15/month) |
| Four different identifiers | One per system (13101 to 13104). They are delivered already configured |
| Costs included | Spread 2 points · slippage 1 point · commission of USD 3,50 per lot per trade. Does not include swap - see the note on the overnight holding cost |
| Reference capital | All the published numbers are calculated on an initial capital of USD 100.000, with a fixed position size of 7 lots per USD 100.000 of account |
Price: USD 500, one-off payment, launch price. Four independent systems trading the Nasdaq 100 at the same time, three long and one short. No subscription and no renewal. The file comes tied to your account number and includes the installation guide and support until it is up and running.
On leverage. The numbers in this data sheet are measured with a fixed position size of 7 lots per USD 100.000 of account, which is the size the backtest was run with. Changing the lot from the Expert Advisor's parameters in MetaTrader 5 multiplies the result and also the maximum drawdown in the same proportion, and the numbers in this document stop applying.
Risk warning. Leveraged trading can make you lose all of your invested capital. Nothing in this document guarantees profits. Trade only with money you can afford to lose.
Nature of the results. All the results in this document are simulations on historical data and do not represent live trading. Simulated results have known limitations: they are built knowing the past and do not necessarily reflect the impact of liquidity, slippage or real execution conditions. No result, real or simulated, guarantees future returns. The costs each simulation was run with are stated in the body of this data sheet, in the «Costs included» row; your broker's costs may be different and change the result.
Disclaimer. This document describes a software product. It does not constitute financial, investment, legal or tax advice, nor an offer or recommendation to buy or sell any instrument. The issuer is not registered as an investment adviser, does not manage third-party funds and has no access to its clients' accounts.